Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/11/11

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on  04 - 10.11.2019,
                 Forecast on 11 - 18.11.2019,
            Carrington Rotation 2223 (16,44.10.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (4.9 - 4.5) deg. 
            (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (235 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 75%). ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 (Wn=0. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL.  5.11 THE FIRST FLARE 
(B1.3) OCCURRED IN THE AR12750 (AFTER 2.11 SPOTLESS) WITH THE OR-
DER OF POLARITY CORRESPONDING TO 25 SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE (-/ + IN 
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE).  NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND ONE CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTION (5.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH -  N28L023 N13L031 N02L033 N15L013  3.4% 10.11   1  A  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE AT BACKGROUND LEVELS THIS PERIOD UNDER A NO-
MINAL SOLAR WIND REGIME.

23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN 
THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT PERIOD SECTOR BOUNDARY REMAINED 
UNSTABLE.
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER   04     05     06     07     08     09     10   NOVEMBER
Wus       000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7     071    070    069    070    070    070    071 
bcg     6.6   6.7   6.7   6.7   A6.9   A6.9   7.0   GOES
Sp        000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                   
IMF        +      +      +      +      +      +      +    DSCOVR   
>2    9.2E+7 7.2E+7 4.6E+7 4.1E+7 4.9E+7 4.1E+7 3.9+7   GOES
Ie>2     2389   3049   1222   1011   1124   2296   2934   pfu 
Ap         4      5      5      5      3      4      3    n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc       4      8      9      5      5      6      3    n IZMIRAN 
---------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 25.10/0845 UT AND 25.10-08.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD THE MOST PROBABLY IS EXPECTED QUIET 
 AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov