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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/07/17

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 10 - 16.07.2017,
                Forecast on 17 - 24.07.2017,
    Carrington Rotation 2192, 2193 (23,05.06; 20.07.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (1,6;  2,1) deg. 
              (S35 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL ALL DAYS EXCEPT
11.07 - ON THE LOW.  THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF THE RELATIVE  SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=024+11/-8 (Wn=038+15/-13). ON THE VISIB-
LE SOLAR DISK 3 SUNSPOT GROUP,  ONE OF THEM WAS BIG (AR12665 S05L109, 
Sp = 710 msh, M2) WAS OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE MIDDLE, THE 
LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 20+20/-20.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 14.07, AT THE LOW 10, 11
13, 15, 16.07  AND THE VERY LOW 12.07.  4 SOLAR  FILAMENT EJECTIONS 
OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND 
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >14 CMEs ONE WAS TYPE II (angular with 90 - 180 
deg.).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
14.02 0107 0209  0455 S06W29L109 M2.4/1N 1.3E-01 12665        CME/0248
                                 
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
11.07 >1554   >0435   N34E53L075       6                     
12.07 >0900   >0011   S26W34L147       8                   CME
12.07     0200        N23W33L146       ?
16.07 >0920   >0018   N19W23L083      14  
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE, LOW AND THE VERY LOW 
LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G   Space Obser.
CH  -  S18L105 S28L085  S40L095 S20L110       16.07  1    SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N50L027 N30L002  N22L042 N28L060       18.07  3    SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 15.07/1820 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 
0N 20.07.

JULY    10     11     12     13     14     15     16      JULY
Wus    032    027    043    055    058    034    026 
F10.7  095    091    090    092    094    092    087
bcg  B1.3   B1.3   B1.6   B1.4   B5.6   B1.9   2.1      GOES
Sp     690    620    590    470    490    390    350  msh   
N                     1             1 
IMF     +      +      +      +      ~     +/-     -      DSCOVR   
>2 5.7+6     -  2.7E+7 3.3+7 4.4+7 2.9+7 3.6+6      GOES
Ie>2   179    477    658    666    942    723    376   pfu 
Ap      9     8      3       4      5      3      45   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    9     8      5       8      6      4      41   n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT 
OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 19 - 24.07.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS TO 16.07 WHEN 
AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SI 16/0601 UT) FROM FLARE
M2.4 WAS OBSERVED MIDDLE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=47, dur.=18 h.) AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, be continued) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER 
BOULDER DATA. 

 ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX-
PECTED, HOWEVER 18-19.07 HAS POSSIBLE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION - 
CORONAL HOLE INFLUENCE.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov