Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/03/18

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 4 - 10.03.2019,
                Forecast on 11 - 17.03.2019,
    Carrington Rotation 2214, 2215 (12,5.03; 8,8.04.2019)
          Earth out of ecliptic (-7.4 - -7.6) deg. 
          (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL BUT
ONLY 4.03 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (53 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 002+5/-2 (Wn= 
003+8/-3). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC THE SINGLE SMALL SUNSPOT GRO-
UP WENT BEHIND THE WESTERN LIMB 12.03.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL REMAIN  AT VERY LOW 
LEVEL AND THE SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 2 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (12.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
CH* -  N10L017 S22L037 S25L035 S15L002 12.8% 12.03 R1   -  SDO, SOHO..
CH* -  S18L012 S30L025 S45L017 S20L007 12.8% 12.03 R1   -  SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N20L325 N11L320 S17L312 S01L302  3.6% 17.03 R8   -  SDO, SOHO..
* Perhaps is one CH; the area - total; 
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 27.02/08 UT EARTH  IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 23.03.2019.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
MARCH    11     12     13     14     15     16     17   MARCH
Wus     011    011    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   070    071    071    070    070    070    069
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  GOES
Sp      010    010    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                               
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -   DSCOVR   
>2  1.1E+8 3.0E+7 1.4E+7 1.0+7 3.4+6 6.2E+6 2.0+7  GOES
Ie>2   2179   2406    464    376    276    217    675  pfu 
Ap       3      7      4      7      7      11     15  n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     4      7      4      11     8      13     16  n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

HIGH (and after 2.03 - extremal) THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX 
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 28.02/1710 UT AND 28.02 - 12.03 HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.   
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MEDIUM LATITUDES UP REMAINS QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF DAY 17.03 WHEN TO THE EARTH THE DISTUR-
BANCE FROM CMEs 12.03,  WHICH PROPOGATED ON INTERPLANETARY SPACE WITH 
A SPEED SMALLER,  THAN SURROUNDING SOLAR WIND CAME.  IN THE SAME TIME 
THE EARTH  WAS PASSED  INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM  OF SOLAR WIND FROM 
TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. UNDER ACTION OF THESE FACTORS THE GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITION BECAME ACTIVE AND THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams
=33, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING THE CENTER OF BOULDER DATA AND (G0, Ams=
24, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED.

NEXT PERIOD THE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLEDED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION IS EXPECTED.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov