Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/07/22

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 15 - 21.07.2019,
                Forecast on 22 - 29.07.2019,
   Carrington Rotation 2219, 2020 (29,5.06; 26.7.07.2019)   
           Earth out of ecliptic (1.2 - 1.5) deg. 
          (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (131 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0
(Wn=0). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT 
AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to          te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 C 28.06 UT THE FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE 
 MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+" SIGN.  THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDER THE 
 EARTH HAS TO PASS 24.07.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JULY     15     16     17     18     19     20     21    JULY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7   067    067    068    067    067    067    068 
bcg   6.7   6.5   6.4   6.5   A6.3   A6.3   6.5    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                
IMF     +/~    +/~     +      +      ~      ~     +     DSCOVR   
>2  9.5E+7 1.0E+8 7.3E+7 9.2E+7 9.8E+7 9.5E+7 6.7+7    GOES
Ie>2                                                     pfu 
Ap       7      3      6      3      4      3      7     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     9      6      7      5      6      4      3     n IZMIRAN 
----------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 10.07/1230 AND 10-20.07 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 22.07.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.  

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov