Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/01/14

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 07 - 13.01.2019,
                  Forecast on 14 - 21.01.2019,
            Carrington Rotation 2212, 2213 (20,5.12.2018; )
            Earth out of ecliptic (-3.7 - -4.4) deg. 
             (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectivness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, 
THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (8 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019).  ESTIMATED,  MOST 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=000 (Wn=000). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LE-
VEL.  LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION 
AND FOUR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
CH -   N02L101 S35L152 S45L142 S05L102 6.4%   15.1  R1  -  SDO, SOHO...
The characteristics of this CH do not imply its geoeffectiveness at 
mid-latitudes;
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 02.01/1430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.01.

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  07     08     09     10     11     12     13   JANUARY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000  
F10.7   072    072    072    070    068    070    069  
bcg   1.6  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                              
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  1.1E+8 9.1E+7 5.5E+7 4.9+7 1.6+7 1.3E+7 2.0E+7   GOES
Ie>2  2970   2650   1978   1227    978     259    444   pfu 
Ap       7      6      4      4      7      3      3    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     10     6      7      5      7      4      5    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
6.01 AND OBSERVED 6-10.01.2019.  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. 

NEXT WEEK AT MID LATITUDES IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UNSETTLED

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov