Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.06.2011, Forecast on 27.06 - 03.07.2011, Carrington Rotations 2111, 2112 (05,83.06 - 03,01.07.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD TO 26 JUNE WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL, THEN ON LOW. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD HAS MADE W = 028+9/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OF SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK A LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LOW AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE MOST LIKELY THE CALCULATED WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=030+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW ONLY JUNE 21, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE PERIOD ARE REGISTRED 34 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THEM 2 TYPES "PARTIAL HALO II" (TO 180 deg.) AT 20.06 AND (up to 270 deg.) AT 21.06. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ to tm te location Class å(1-8A) áR Radio II/IV CME Pr X-ray Ïp J/m-2 to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK FOR LAST WEEK WERE OBSERVED NEXT CORONAL HOLES: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories óî - N60L030 N50L020 N17L062 N23L065 1-2.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..... This coronal hole - bay of subpolar coronal hole. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JUNE Wus 043 057 044 047 062 047 026 F10.7 096 095 093 096 096 094 090 èbcg B2.1 B2.1 B1.5 B1.7 B1.6 B1.7 ÷1.6 GOES Sp 250 210 160 210 280 105 040 Nnew 2 1 IMF - + /- - - - - - ACE Å>2 3.1å+6 4.0å+6 8.8å+6 3.0E+7 1.5å+8 3.8å+8 2.5å+8 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 7 10 12 17 10 6 6 áÒ Dst KIOTO Amsc 9 11 13 14 13 10 11 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 23/1455 UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED 24-26.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27 - 30.06. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED THE WHOLE PERIOD ON IZMIRAN DATA, BUT ACCORDING TO WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 24, dur.= 12 hours) WAS RECORDED AT NIGHT, 22 -23 MAY, AS A RESULT OF EARTH's PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS ROTATION HAS CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. IN THE ENVIRONEMENT SPACE OBSERVED SUDDEN IMPULSE - 17/0244 UT, BUT ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS BARELY AFFECTED. NEXT WEEK ON JULY, 1-2 EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NOTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS ROTATION HAS CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM 1-2.07 ORDER OF 60 %. IN OTHER DAYS IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov , OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 , OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru WDC STP MOSCOW