--------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2011 HAS MADE Wjune =37.0, THAT GIVES FOR 24 MONTH (2010, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 28.8 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013 (Date of approach of a maximum of a current cycle close to a reality can be defined only after 18 - 24 months of its development). THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7 SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6 MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2 HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002. THE OF THE 23 CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7. The most probable height according to all available information will make current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70. Possible specifications after 28 months of development of a cycle (on the smoothed values of relative Wolf number). THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 83 6.. 46 11.. 15 16.. 39 21.. 33 26.. 18 2.. 89í 7.. 38 12.. 11 17.. 39 22.. 33 27.. 10Í 3.. 86 8.. 30 13.. 10Í 18.. 40 23.. 38 28.. 25 4.. 76 9.. 26 14.. 24 19.. 31 24.. 43 29.. 27 5.. 53 10.. 22 15.. 34 20.. 26 25.. 33 30.. 32 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, JUNE F*feb. = 95.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.06 - 03.07.2011, Forecast on 04 - 11.07.2011, Carrington Rotations 2111, 2112 (05,83.06 - 03,01.07.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO MIDDLE AND LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 028+9/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OF SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROUCH THE AVERAGE VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=030+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 21, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THEM 2 WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.). ------------------------------------------------------------------------ to tm te location Class å(1-8A) áR Radio II/IV CME Pr X-ray Ïp J/m-2 to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories óî - N60L030 N50L020 N17L062 N23L065 1-2.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO..... This coronal hole - bay of subpolar coronal hole. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. ----------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 JULY Wus 030 037 045 034 051 054 042 F10.7 089 087 087 089 088 086 086 èbcg B1.6 B1.5 B1.3 B1.0 B1.1 á9.1 ÷1.4 GOES Sp 015 040 140 110 120 110 120 Nnew 1 IMF - -/ + +/ - - - - - ACE Å>2 2.4å+8 2.1å+8 2.1å+8 1.0å+8 1.0E+6 1.2å+6 7.9å+5 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 5 3 2 6 13 6 8 áÒ Dst KIOTO Amsc 6 5 6 8 19 8 12 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 23/1455 UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED 27-30.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE THE WHOLE PERIOD ON WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES DATA, BUT ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 12 h.) WAS RECORDED AT JULY 1, AS A RESULT OF EARTH's PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE NOTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS ROTATION HAS CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov , OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 , OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru WDC STP MOSCOW