------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2011 HAS MADE Wdec.= 73.0, THAT GIVES FOR 30 MONTH (2011, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june.= 53.2 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09.2011-03.2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 50 - 70. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 86 6..101 11.. 62 16.. 50 21.. 73 26.. 78 31.. 62 2.. 85 7.. 88 12.. 51 17.. 60 22.. 69 27.. 76 3..103 8..106 13.. 54 18.. 67 23.. 69 28.. 73 4..108M 9.. 76 14.. 52 19.. 77 24.. 56 29.. 75 5..101 10.. 68 15.. 38m 20.. 72 25.. 65 30.. 62 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, DECEMBER F*aug. = 141.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.2011 - 01.01.2012, Forecast on 02 - 09.01.2012, Carrington Rotation 2118 (13,61.12.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTE- RNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=060+13/-23. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT FROM 9 TO 3 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE LARGE AND ONE AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W= 050+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 26, 29-31.12, AND ON LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 64 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE ONE TYPE "çáìï" AND 5 - TIPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (angular width 90-180 deg.). --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te localiz. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 26.12/0213 0227 0254 S21W33L225 M1.5/1N 1.2E-2 11387 26.12/2012 2030 2049 S21W42L225 M2.3/SF 2.2E-2 11387 29.12/1340 1350 1457 S25E69L086 M1.9/1F 1.5E-2 11389 29.12/2143 2151 2216 S27E65L086 M2.0/SF 1.2E-2 11389 30.12/0303 0309 >0313 S27E64L086 M1.2/SF 3.7E-3 11389 31.12/1309 1315 1338 S25E44L086 M2.4/SF 7.4E-3 11389 31.12/1016 1026 1059 S26E42L086 M1.5/1F 8.5E-3 11389 DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME 26.12/ CME c/p localiz. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S25L162 S45L122 Ps S28L182 30.12 2 ëò, SDO, SOHO... CH + N48L172 N44L152 N35L160 N40L174 30.12 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L124 N28L117 N25L122 N26L126 31.12 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N18L051 S10L036 S13L039 N10L056 07.01 2 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 19.12/04 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS, HOWEVER WITH 27.12/00 TO 29.12/15 AND AFTER 30.12/21 UT IT IS NOTED + SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 05.01. DECEMBER 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 JANUARY Wus 110 126 122 105 104 068 061 F10.7 146 140 145 147 141 133 130 èbcg ÷6.5 ÷5.5 ÷5.7 ÷6.5 ÷5.6 ÷3.8 ÷4.4 GOES Sp 800 1030 1135 1025 1180 790 810 Nnew 1 2 IMF - + + +/- -/+ + + ACE Å>2 9.9å+5 1.0å+6 1.2E+6 7.4å+5 7.2å+5 6.8å+5 7.0å+5 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 0 1 2 5 3 2 2 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 3 4 6 10 11 8 - IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru