Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.02.2012, Forecast on 20 - 27.02.2012, Carrington Rotations 2120 (06,28.02.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=031+10/-7. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 4 TO 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 52 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 1 WAS TIPE "PARTIAL HALO" III. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME 14.02 <2312 <1435 S32W28L269 10 17.02 0135 N26E41L161 9 17.02 0553 S33W17L219 16 CME/0745/135km/s c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S35L262 S38L226 S45L246 S33L272 15.02 2 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N14L225 N00L216 S08L215 N05L227 18-19.02 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 01/23 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 20.02. FEBRUARY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FEBRUARY Wus 059 064 040 041 053 063 069 F10.7 108 107 105 103 104 104 105 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷1.7 ÷1.6 ÷1.6 ÷2.7 ÷1.7 ÷2.0 GOES Sp 450 420 310 300 120 250 180 Nnew 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 4.4å+6 1.8å+6 3.4E+6 1.3å+7 2.7å+7 3.8å+7 1.6å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 9 9 20 4 2 3 15 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 10 19 23 6 4 7 16 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ON FEBRUARY, 14 AND 15th ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA TWO MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE FIRST (G0, Ams=25, dur.=15 h.) HAS BEGUN AT 14.02/15 UT. IN 9 HOURS AFTER IT END THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM G1, Ams=26, dur.=12 h.) WAS REALIZED. ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE ITS WERE ONLY SUBSTORM. SOURCES OF THESE DISTURBANCES STEELS FILAMENT EJECTA 9-10.02. BESIDES, 18.02/22 UT ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT IS NOTED SUBSTORM INTENSITY G1 AND DURATION 8 h. ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE THIS SUBSTORM HAD THE SAME IN- TENSITY AND LASTED 5 HOURS. IT DISTURBANCE WAS CONSEQUENCE THE PASSAGE OF THE EARTH THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru