UPDATE FROM 03/08/2012: AT THE TIME OF ARRIVAL IN ENVIRONMENT DISTURBANCES OF LARGE SOLAR FLARE 05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-11 429 1 CME AND DEVELOPMENT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM, IN COMPLEX ACTIVE REGIONS ON SUN AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. at 7.03) + AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200 m.v.h to 7.02) THE TWO LARGE SOLAR FLARES WAS OCCURRENCED 07.03 0000 0024 0349 N17E27L299 3B/X5.4 6.7E-11 429 1 II / 2, IV / 2, CME / H 07.03 0105 0114 0130 N22E12L315 X1.1/2B 1.5E-11 429 1 II / 2 of CME, AND THE SECOND FLARE THERE WAS IN THE PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST. DISTURBANCES OF THE FLARES COME IN ENVIRONMENT AT THE SECOND HALF DAY OF MARCH 8 AND WITH A PROBABILITY OF 90% WILL CAUSE A SEVERAL MAGNETIC STORM. WHEREAS, THAT THE FLARES ALREADY HAS CAUSED THE MOST POWERFUL PROTON EVENTS (S3) THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE Pr> 10 MeV: te - 7.03/0500 UT; tm - 7.03/1630 UT - 1630 pfu, in the development; IN NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONMENT CREATED AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL MARCH 11 VERY very UNFAVORABLE RADIATION SITUATION. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2012 HAS MADE Wfeb.= 33.1, THAT GIVES FOR 32 MONTH (2011, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug= 59.0 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 61M 6.. 29 11.. 32 16.. 33 21.. 41 26.. 33 2.. 41 7.. 22 12.. 34 17.. 34 22.. 30 27.. 30 3.. 24 8.. 9m 13.. 45 18.. 38 23.. 38 28.. 29 4.. 26 9.. 20 14.. 40 19.. 48 24.. 40 29.. 14 5.. 23 10.. 32 15.. 37 20.. 44 25.. 33 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, FEBRUARY F*jan. = 106.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.02 - 04.03.2012, Forecast on 05 - 12.03.2012, Carrington Rotations 2120, 2121 (06,28.02; 04,62.03.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=023+19/-10. ON the VISIBLE DISK of the SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 4 TO 2 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, HOWEVER 3.02 FROM EAST LIMB THERE WAS A BIG, ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429 (N18L299, Sp=700 m.v.h. on 4.02) ALREADY OCCURENCED ONE LARGE AND 2 FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASES. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT FEBRUARY, 2 AND 4, LOW - 1.03 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 39 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 7 WERE TIPE "PARTIAL HALO" II (27, 29.02 é 4.03). --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 02.03 1729 1746 >1807 N16E83L299 M3.3/SF 4.9E-2 11429 CME 04.03 1029 1052 >1324 N19E61L299 M2.0/1N 9.2E-2 11429 IV/2 CME 05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-1 11429 CME HALO DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME 27.02 1433 CME 28.02 <1309 >0703 N24E59L011 11 c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON HIGHE (5-6.02), AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S16L053 S23L051 S32L053 S24L066 03.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH + N37L017 N36L012 N28L025 N31L027 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + S15L012 S33L315 S50L317 S17L017 07.03 4 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 29.02/2330 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 21.03. FEBRUARY 27 28 29 01 02 03 04 MARCH Wus 045 035 022 024 024 052 070 F10.7 106 103 102 103 108 116 120 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷1.6 ÷1.5 ÷1.7 ÷3.0 ÷2.6 ÷4.5 GOES Sp 130 130 130 110 100 430 870 Nnew 1 2 1 IMF + + + /- - - - - ACE Å>2 5.1å+6 2.0å+6 3.6E+6 4.0å+6 4.4å+7 7.0å+7 3.3å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 18 8 4 16 11 8 13 áÒ Dst -52 -39 -25 -35 -44 -37 -42 ëIOTO Amsc 28 10 7 21 13 10 13 IZMIRAN A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 04/1800 UT AND CONTINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPOR- TING PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 2/1425 UT TO 4.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED 27.02 WHEN ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THE INTENSIVE 9-hour SUBSTORM (G2) WAS OCCURENCED. AC- CORDING TO THE WORLD NETWORK DATA THE SUBSTORM (G1) OCCUPIED 3 HOURS HAS BEEN NOTED. THE SECOND PERIOD OF ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE END OF DAY AT MARCH, 1. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAG- NETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK AT MARCH, 7 THE EARTH WILL GET UNDER BLOW OF THE LARGE FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS è1.1 5.03. WITH PROBABI- LITY OF 70% IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM. GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITIONS OF NEXT DAYS WILL DEPEND ON REALIZATION OF GEOEF- FECTIVE FLARES OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru