Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.03.2012, Forecast on 12 - 19.03.2012, Carrington Rotations 2121 (04,62.03.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=059+6/-5. ON VI- SIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 5 TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS GREAT: AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. at 7.03, X/3 + M/12) - IT AP- PEARANCE FROM EASTERN LIMB 3.02. WITH AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200 m.v.h. at 7.03) IS A SET THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. IMPORTANT OF FLARE ACTIVITY STARTED MARCH, 4th AND TO 11.03 IN CAR OCCUREN- CED X-RAY CLASS X - 3, CLASS M - 12 FLARES, 5 OF WHICH ARE LARGE. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT MARCH, 5, 7, 9 AND 10, MID- DLE - 6.03 AND LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 48 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 4 WERE TIPE "HALO" (5, 6, 7 AND 10.03) AND ONE WAS A TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" II. It is necessary to notice that the hindrances caused by very big flux of solar protons (S3) on coronograph screens, didn't allow while to define types of all significant coronal mass ejections. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 05.03 0230 0409 0643 N17E52L299 X1.1/2B 3.7E-1 11429 CME 05.03 1910 1916 >1921 N14E44L299 M2.1/1B 7.8E-3 11429 05.03 1924 1930 1950 N14E44L299 1B/M1.8 2.7E-3 11429 05.03 2226 2234 >2242 N14E42L299 M1.3/ 7.3E-3 11429 06.03 0022 0028 0039 N16E41L299 M1.3/SN 3.7E-3 11429 O6.03 0136 0144 >0150 N16E39L299 M1.2/ 5.9E-3 11429 06.03 0400 0405 0419 N16E39L299 1N/M1.0 2.6E-3 11429 06.03 0752 0755 >0800 M1.0/ 2.7E-3 11429 06.03 1223 1241 1328 N18E38L299 M2.1/1N 2.2E-2 11429 06.03 2104 2111 >2114 N16E41L299 M1.3/ 4.9E-3 11429 06.03 2249 2253 >2311 M1.0/ 9.7E-3 11429 07.03 0000 0024 0349 N17E27L299 X5.4/3B 6.7E-1 11429 II/2 IV/2 CME 07.03 0105 0114 0130 N22E12L299 X1.3/SF 1.5E-1 11430 II/2 09.03 0322 0353 0618 N15W08L299 M6.3/SF 1.3E-3 11429 II/2 IV/1 CME 10.03 1715 1744 >1830 N17W24L299 M8.4/ 2.6E-1 11429 IV/2 CME DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N37L017 N36L012 N28L025 N31L027 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + S15L012 S33L315 S50L317 S17L017 07.03 4 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N16L232 S02L222 S21L239 S02L242 16.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 9.03/05 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /-+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 13.03. MARCH 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 MARCH Wus 105 109 102 086 096 089 103 F10.7 132 138 136 140 146 149 131 èbcg ó1.0 ÷7.7 ó1.1 ÷6.5 ÷8.8 ÷7.0 ÷5.6 GOES Sp 1240 1540 1800 1330 1240 1120 1260 Nnew 1 1 2 IMF - - -/+/- - + /- + + ACE Å>2 5.8å+7 2.3å+7 2.9E+7 1.9å+8 1.4å+7 2.5å+8 5.9å+8 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 8 8 42 26 71 18 6 áÒ Dst -35 -35 -78 -44 -139 -79 -59 ëIOTO Amsc 11 13 34 19 47 17 10 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 04/1800 UT AND CONTINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPOR- TING PERIOD. Pr >10 MeV: 5.03/0500 UT, íáëóéíõí 6530 p.f.u. 05/1540; Pr >100 MeV: 5/0405 UT, íáëóéíõí 69 p.f.u., te - 10/1650 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 5 - 8 AND 10 - 11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT MARCH, 12 - 13 AND 17 - 18. TERMS OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=34, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams = 56, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER OBSERVED MARCH, 7. SINCE MID-MARCH 8 DAY AGAIN OBSERVED MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 67, dur. = 33 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G3, Ams=63, dur.=36 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. THESE GEO- MAGNETIC STORM ARE THE RESULT OF FLARE EVENTS 5 AND 7 MARCH. MARCH 10, GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BEEN ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS-UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK MARCH, 12 IN ENVIRONMENT WILL COME THE DISTURBANCE FROM LARGE SOLAR FLARE OF MARCH 10. WITH A PROBABILITY OF 70% CAN EXPECT MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM. MARCH, 16 THE EARTH WILL BE PASS HIGHSPEED STREAM FROM LARGE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF MAG- NETIC STORM AT LEAST 40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK AT MARCH, 7 THE EARTH WILL GET UNDER BLOW OF THE LARGE FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS è1.1 5.03. WITH PROBABI- LITY OF 70% IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM. GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITIONS OF NEXT DAYS WILL DEPEND ON REALIZATION OF GEOEF- FECTIVE FLARES OF SUNSPOT GROUP AR11429. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru