--------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2012 HAS MADE Waug.= 63.1, THAT GIVES FOR 38 MONTH (2012, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb.= 66.9 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 88 6.. 65 11.. 72 16.. 23 21.. 47 26.. 52 31..100 2.. 95 7.. 81 12.. 65 17.. 33 22.. 46 27.. 50 3..116í 8.. 82 13.. 49 18.. 36 23.. 47 28.. 53 4..101 9..105 14.. 22 19.. 48 24.. 47 29.. 55 5.. 82 10.. 87 15.. 20Í 20.. 53 25.. 51 30.. 84 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, AUGUST F*aug. = 115.4 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, AUGUST Ap aug. = 7.53 It became so far clear that the current solar cycle didn't become lowest of authentic cycles of solar activity. The lowest solar cycle there was N14. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.08 - 02.09.2012, Forecast on 03 - 10.09.2012, Carrington Rotation 2127 (15,04.08.2012) SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=064+22/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 4-5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH, APPEARING ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ON AUGUST 25, AVERAGE SIZES. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT AUGUST 30 AND OTHER DAYS - ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 31 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE "HALO" AND ONE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 30.08 1202 1211 >1214 S27E85L078 M1.3/ 3.9E-3 11563 31.08 1945 2043 >2151 S19E42L092 C8.5/2F 5.1E-2 11562 II/2 IV/2 DSF CME/H DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 31.08 2043 S06E20L092 C8.5 11562 CME/H c/p local. - central part localization ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories 31.08 2043 S06E20L092 C8.5 11562 CME/H R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 24.08/1230 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 04.09. AUGUST 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 SEPTEMBER Wus 085 073 095 118 144 120 108 F10.7 112 111 118 128 131 146 142 èbcg ÷2.3 ÷2.2 B3.4 ÷6.7 ÷7.8 ÷9.8 ÷8.2 GOES Sp 580 340 360 370 730 740 640 N 3 1 1 3 1 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 4.5å+7 5.3E+7 6.3E+7 6.7å+7 7.2å+7 2.0å+7 1.3E+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 6 3 4 3 2 6 14 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 13 7 7 12 8 11 7 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 27 - 31 AUGUST. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED QUITE AND ACTIVE. HOWEVER, ON MARCH 2 AFTER THE ARRIVAL AT THE EARTH OF INTERPLANETARY DISTURBANCE FROM THE FLARE C8.5/2F AND THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OF THE FLARE ASSOCIATING (SI - 2/1214 UT) IN THE END OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER IS NOTED THE PROLONGED (12 HOURS) SUBSTORM, WHICH IN THE INTENSITY DID NOT REACH THE THRESHOLD OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM; HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLEDED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH MAGNETIC STORMS 3-5 SEPTEMBER. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru