Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
         Highlights on 03 - 09.09.2012,
          Forecast on 10 - 17.09.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2127, 2128 (15,04.08; 11,29.09.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN ON SEPTEMBER 3 AND 4 WAS AT THE HIGH 
LEVEL  ALSO DURING THE REMAINING DAYS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY,  THE 
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE PERIOD 
WAS MADE W = 068+26/-26. ON THE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THEY  WAS PRESENT 
FROM 9 TO 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE 
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 6, 8, 9 AND OTHER 
DAYS - ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD 
IT WAS OBSERVED 56 CME AMONG WHICH 3 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
06.09 0406 0413 >0420 N03W60L126  M1.6/   7.5E-3 11560
08.09 1735 1759 >1820 S14W40L005  M1.4/   2.8E-2 11564          CME
09.09 2150 2236  2326 S15W62L005  M1.2/1F 3.6E-2 11564

DSF     to         te     c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl     AR     CME
04.09 >1615      <0515   N27EE61L022     7         
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE 
LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE  SOLAR DISK  DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH -   N32L024 N25L020 N21L025 N27L032   10.09   7   SDO, SOHO....
CH ?   S03L004 S06L001 S08L355 S05L007   13.07   1   SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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 AFTER 07.09/1230 UT  EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 04.09.

SEPTEMBER 03     04     05     06     07     08     09    SEPTEMBER
Wus      156    150    105    112    110    070    087 
F10.7    142    138    133    128    133    129    123 
èbcg    ÷6.7   ÷6.1   B5.4   ÷4.4   ÷5.3   ÷7.1   ÷5.4    GOES
Sp       860    590    670    550    640    470    420   
N         2                           1             1      
IMF      -/+     +     +/-     -     -/+     +      +     ACE
Å>2   5.0å+6 2.3E+6 2.5E+6 2.5å+6 1.6å+7 2.1å+7 4.0E+7    GOES
Nm%                                                       THULE
Ap       34      13     25     11     10     7      4     áÒ
Dst     -51     -43    -51    -23    -20    -25    -5     ëIOTO
Amsc     28      12     18     10     11     9      8     IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 09.09.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 10-11 SEPTEMBER.

THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE, WHICH WAS BEGUN OF SECOND SEPTEMBER, TO 
THE MIDDLE OF DAY 3.09  DEVELOPED INTO THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, 
Ams= 38, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN and (G2, Ams= 46, 
dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING  TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER.  THE SECOND 
MAGNETIC STORM  IS NOTED  INTO FIRST HALF DAY  ON SEPTEMBER 5 - (G0, 
Ams= 24, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams=43, 
dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER. DURING THE 
REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru