--------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2012 HAS MADE Wsep.= 61.5, THAT GIVES FOR 39 MONTH (2012, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*mar.= 66.8 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 67 - 80. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 95 6.. 76 11.. 50 16.. 42 21.. 55 26.. 95 2.. 93 7.. 62 12.. 48 17.. 36 22.. 38 27.. 74 3..112M 8.. 54 13.. 38 18.. 42 23.. 49 28.. 56 4..104 9.. 58 14.. 34m 19.. 44 24.. 66 29.. 52 5.. 80 10.. 46 15.. 40 20.. 53 25.. 89 30.. 65 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2012, SEPTEMBER Fsep. = 123.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, SEPTEMBER Ap sep. = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.10.2012, Forecast on 08 - 15.10.2012, Carrington Rotation 2128, 2129 (11,29.09; 07,XX.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL 1-5 OCTOBER, AFTER - 0N LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 031+8/-9. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5 - 3 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT OCTOBER, 1-2nd AND 7th, OTHER DAYS - ON VERY LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 57 CME AMONG WHICH 4 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO III" AND 4 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 5.10 >1540 <0616 S12W26L156 6 5.10 0730 S12W36L066 >20 B7.5 11584 CME/pH/0730 6.10 2000 S65W15L163 30 C3.7 11577 CME/H/0812 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N30L137 N27L134 N20L134 N19L132 01.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - S00L035 S10L033 S20L038 S13L051 07.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 02/0030 TO 05.10/1600 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT SEPTEMBER 09. 0CTOBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0CTOBER Wus 059 055 058 056 055 039 037 F10.7 128 118 113 110 106 099 098 èbcg ÷7.6 ÷4.3 B2.1 ÷1.8 ÷2.1 ÷1.7 B1.9 GOES Sp 580 550 710 640 560 520 480 N IMF + + /- - - -/+ + + Å>2 7.4å+5 9.3E+5 1.0E+6 1.2å+6 1.6å+6 1.7å+6 2.5E+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 35 6 5 2 3 6 5 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 23 8 9 6 7 10 7 IZMIRAN THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. 30/2307 UT ON EARTH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE SECOND IN DAYS ALREADY IS NOTED. IT WAS CONSEQUENCE FLARE EVENT 27.09 (FLARE WITH FILAMENT EJECTION) AFTER WHICH THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=69, dur. =12 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 41, dur = 15 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED. AT THE MOMENT OF HIGHLIGHT RELEASE AFTER ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE TO EARTH FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 5.10 (SI 08/0430 UT) DEVELOPS MAGNETIC STORM (G2). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE BEGINNING OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON OCTOBER 8 IS NOTED. ACTIVE CONDITION IS POSSIBLE 10.10 BECAUSE OFVERY LARGE FI- LAMENT EJECTION ON OCTOBER 7 FROM THE CENTRAL ZONE OF THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru