Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
         Highlights on 08 - 14.10.2012,
          Forecast on 15 - 22.10.2012,
 Carrington Rotation 2128, 2129 (11,29.09-8,57.10.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR 
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=045+13/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY 
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-5 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE  VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT OCTOBER, 8-10, OTHER DAYS - 
ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS 
OBSERVED 33 CME AMONG WHICH 3 WERE TYPE "HALO" (8 - 2, 14.10) AND 1 - 
"PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
08.10  1105 1117 >1123 N17E88L042 M2.3/  1.1E-2 11589
09.10  2322 2317 >2331 S29E86L256 M1.7/  6.4E-3 11590
10.10  0451 0504 >0520 s27e73L256 M1.0/  1.3E-2 11590
DSF     to      te   c/p local. l in deg.   Fl   AR     CME
12.10 >0949    <0729 N17W28L335        13
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND 
AVERAGE LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING 
CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +   S04L316 S08L311 S21L324 S10L347   13.10   1   KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N30L286 N22L282 N17L289 N19L297   16.10   7   KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH +   S30L282 S38L260 S43L263 S32L286   17.10   2   KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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 WITH 13/0050 UT THE EARTH  IS  IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 17.10.

0CTOBER   08     09     10     11     12     13     14     0CTOBER
Wus      041    063    071    082    089    085    097        
F10.7    103    106    112    117    122    125    132          
èbcg    ÷4.4   ÷4.5   B3.0   ÷5.0   ÷4.3   ÷4.3   B5.4     GOES
Sp       410    410    400    500    670    610    590    
N         3                    1      1             1          
IMF     +/ -     -      -      -      -     -/+     +      
Å>2   6.4å+5 1.3E+8 1.5E+8 4.1å+8 4.8å+8 8.1å+7 1.3E+8     GOES
Ie>2           4329   4623   9335  11400   2820   3670     GOES 
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap        35     39     9      6      16     34     20     áÒ
Dst      -98   -108    -43    -36    -26    -94    -52     ëIOTO
Amsc      27     26     15     8      14     33     23     IZMIRAN
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At the desire of users I begin the publication of the maximum inten-
sity of a electrons flux in geostationary orbits in days (Ie>2) ac-
cording to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2 - s-sr).

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL AFTER 9.10/1015 TO 14.10 WAS OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 15 - 21.10.

08/0515 UT ON EARTH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE IS NOTED. IT WAS CONSEQUEN-
CE BY DSF 05.10, AFTER WHICH THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=
46, dur.= 33 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER  AND THE 
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 36, dur.=30 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN 
DATA WERE REGISTERED. NEXT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 41, 
dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND THE MINOR 
MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=35, dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA WE-
RE REGISTERED 13/10.  THE SOURCES IT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE  WAS 
COMBINED ACTION OF NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND VERY LARGE DSF
07.10.  BESIDES  ON 14.10 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ONE MORE MINOR 
MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur.= 12 h.) IS REGISTERED. IN OTHER 
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru