Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.10.2012, Forecast on 22 - 29.10.2012, Carrington Rotation 2129 (8,57.10.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=063+8/-18. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5-8 SUNSPOTS GROUPS TWO OF WHICH HAD A MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT OCTOBER 20, THE AVERAGE - 21. 10 OTHER DAYS-ON LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 33 CME AMONG WHICH THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 20.10 1805 1814 >1819 S12E88L114 M9.0/ 3.5E-2 11598 21.10 1946 2003 >2020 S10E76L114 M1.3/SF 1.4E-2 11598 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 16.10 >0004 <1653 S31E52L198 23 17.10 >2215 <1516 S15W19L260 9 18.10 1241 1416 S11W31L259 6 19.10 >1526 <0637 N17E29L186 24 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N30L286 N22L282 N17L289 N19L297 16.10 7 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH + S30L282 S38L260 S43L263 S32L286 17.10 2 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH + S18L225 S22L212 S26L210 S20L205 22.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 16/15 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 27.10. OCTOBER 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 OCTOBER Wus 097 119 107 100 112 085 075 F10.7 137 137 135 138 141 151 144 èbcg ÷5.5 ÷4.3 B4.5 ÷4.4 ÷5.4 ÷6.2 B6.1 GOES Sp 550 490 390 640 690 870 930 N 1 1 2 1 1 IMF + +/- - - -/+ +/ - - Å>2 2.4å+8 4.8E+8 4.7E+8 5.2å+8 6.0å+8 5.5å+8 4.6E+8 GOES Ie>2 6882 14584 12393 9202 10875 9406 7604 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 7 4 5 4 3 2 2 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 9 6 7 6 4 4 4 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- At the desire of users I begin the publication of the maximum inten- sity of a electrons flux in geostationary orbits in days (Ie>2) ac- cording to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2 - s-sr). THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL AFTER 9.10/1015 TO 21.10 WAS OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 22 - 23.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru