Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
         Highlights on 22 - 29.10.2012,
          Forecast on 30.10 - 05.11.2012,
     Carrington Rotation 2129 (8,57.10.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR 
THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=042+10/-9. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY 
THERE WERE PRESENT 3-5 SUNSPOTS GROUPS TWO OF WHICH HAD A MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE  VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT OCTOBER 22, 23, AND THE lOW IN
OTER DAYS. BY DATA  OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS  FOR THE PERIOD IT 
WAS OBSERVED 39 CME  AMONG  WHICH  THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II" AND ONE -
"PARTIAL HALO III".
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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
22.10  1838 1851 >1938 S12E61L114 M5.0/1F 3.4E-2 11598     CME/2124
23.10  0313 0317 >0321 S13E58L114 X1.8/   4.9E-2 22598
DSF     to      te   c/p local. l in deg.   Fl   AR     CME
26.10      ~0830         SE           ~10
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING 
CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +   S18L225 S22L212 S26L210 S20L205   22.10   1   KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N38L139 N28L137 N23L139 N30L159   27.10   2   KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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 WITH 16/15 UT THE EARTH  IS  IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 27.10.

OCTOBER   22     23     24     25     26     27     28     OCTOBER
Wus      086    084    078    058    071    059    055        
F10.7    156    142    136    130    131    122    117          
èbcg    ÷5.8   ÷5.8   B4.7   ÷3.8   ÷5.1   ÷3.9   B3.2     GOES
Sp       550    490    390    640    690    870    460    
N                1                    1             1          
IMF      -/+     +      +      +      +      +      +      
Å>2   4.2å+8 1.7E+8 9.7E+7 9.4å+7 1.1å+8 2.7å+7 4.7E+7     GOES
Ie>2    8070   2964   1994   1729                          GOES 
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap        2      7      4      4      4      4      3      áÒ
Dst                                                        ëIOTO
Amsc      3      10     5      5      7      5      5      IZMIRAN
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At the desire of users I begin the publication of the maximum inten-
sity of a electrons flux in geostationary orbits in days (Ie>2) ac-
cording to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2 - s-sr).

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL AFTER 9.10/1015 TO 22 - 26.10 WAS OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET, 
HOWEVER ON OCTOBER 1 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA GROWTH 
OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE  BECAUSE OF DOUBLE CME FROM DSF NEAR THE 
WESTERN SOLAR LIMB ARRIVAL IS POSSIBLE. INFORMATION HAS NOT ENOUGH 
TO PLACE THEM IN THE CORRESPONDING TABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru