Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.11.2012, Forecast on 26.11 - 02.12.2012, Carrington Rotations 2130 (04,86.11.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=055+18/-23. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 7-4 SUNSPOTS GROUPS BUT AFTER NOVEMBER 20 ONE, AR11618 (N02L136), INCREASED THE AREA AND BECAME THE MIDDLE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON NOVEMBER 20-21, AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS WAS OBSERVED BY 48 CME FOUR OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL çáìï III" TYPE AND 5 - THE "PARTIAL çáìï II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 20.11 1236 1241 >1246 N06E20L136 M1.7/ 6.3E-3 11618 20.11 1921 1928 >2010 N06E25L136 M1.6/SN 5.2E-3 11618 21.11 0645 0656 0722 N06E10L136 M1.4/1N 1.2E-2 11618 II/2 21.11 1510 1530 >1538 N06E01L136 M3.5/ 2.6E-2 11618 II/2 IV/2 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 22.11 2305 0200 N27E17L182 14 CME/~1400 23.11 <2000 >1300 SE 29 CME/~1400 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVEREGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S30L141 S35L134 S37L149 S34L154 22.11 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N40L127 N38L125 N25L144 N24L145 24.11 3 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH + N57L087 N55L082 N48L092 N50L097 26.11 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - N09L055 S05L050 S07L056 S00L058 30.11 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 17.11/07 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 26.11. NOVEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NOVEMBER Wus 122 119 075 093 085 087 054 F10.7 134 141 140 128 126 118 121 èbcg ÷4.1 ÷6.1 ÷6.0 B3.5 ÷3.1 ÷2.7 B2.7 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 670 560 510 650 750 540 420 m.v.h. N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + Å>2 7.6å+7 2.1E+7 2.9E+7 6.4å+7 6.9å+7 2.7å+6 2.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 1465 1427 1200 1408 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 4 11 6 2 5 12 3 nT áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 6 17 9 6 8 14 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr). Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AT 19-20 FND 22-23.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE TO LEVEL OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON NOVEMBER 26-27 BECAUSE OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 23. 11. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM OF ~40 %. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION SHOULD BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru