--------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2013 HAS MADE Wdec.= 61.4, THAT GIVES FOR 42 MONTH (2012, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june= 61.7 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI.2012 - III 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 38 6.....20m 11.. 34 16.. 47 21.. 43 26.. 41 31.. 64M 2.. 34 7.....22 12.. 48 17.. 53 22.. 56 27.. 39 3.. 32 8.....36 13.. 49 18.. 43 23.. 57 28.. 38 4.. 39 9.....30 14.. 43 19.. 39 24.. 41 29.. 40 5.. 43 10.....31 15.. 45 20.. 40 25.. 41 30.. 40 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2012, DECEMBER Fdec. = 121.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, DECEMBER Ap dec. = 7.15 Values of the smoothed numbers of Wolf went down after 2012, February designating first peak of the current solar cycle development. If it appears the greatest from several (in their 14th solar cycle was 4 and the maximum fell on the second), it there will be a maximum 24 cycles of solar activity, but that UNLIKELY so in the low (W*<80) authentic solar cycles (12, 14, 16) the rise branch length > 4 years. Since January 4 the sharp growth of the sunspot-forming activity level - the second peak began? --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.12.2012 - 06.01.2013, Forecast on 07 - 14.01.2013, Carrington Rotations 2132 (29,50.12.2012) PYATNOOBRAZOVATELNY ACTIVITY OF THE SUN SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN SINCE JANUARY 4 SHARPLY INCREASED TO TO CONFIDENTLY HIGH LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN APPEARED AT ONCE 5 NEW SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 080+32 /-03. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5 - 15 SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM IS MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL AT 5.01, LOW LEVEL - 1, 3-4, 6. 01 AND VERY LOW - 31.12 AND 02.01. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DA- TA THERE WERE OBSERVED 38 CME ONE OF THEM WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" AND TWO - THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 05.01 0926 0931 >0934 n20e88L187 M1.7/ 4.2E-3 11682 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. AR11652 IS TOO CLOSE TO EAST LIMB TO ESTIMATE ITS POSSIBLE FLARE POTENTIAL. WHILE, AR WITH SLOW PROCESSES OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUXES, CAPABLE TO GIVE ONLY SEPARATE FLASHES OF AVERAGES CLASSES. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + s08L004 S09l002 S12L010 S09L011 31.12 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH ? N10L291 N00L286 S05L289 S03L296 06.01 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N30L263 N29L260 N20l264 N25l280 08.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - N40L228 N30L221 N28l233 N30l251 10.01 10 KP, SDO, SOHO.. Last two CH may be one CH; R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.01/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 10.01. DECEMBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 DECEMBER Wus 087 099 090 116 167 181 186 F10.7 114 118 119 129 143 145 142 èbcg ÷2.9 ÷3.1 ÷2.5 B2.5 ÷6.3 ÷7.9 B5.8 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 300 480 610 640 830 1030 1140 Í.s.h. N 2 2 2 5 2 IMF - - -/+ + + + +/- áóå Å>2 5.6å+6 2.9E+6 1.9E+6 2.0å+6 2.1å+6 1.0å+6 1.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 1 0 3 2 2 2 2 nô áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 7 6 7 4 3 6 7 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru