-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2013 HAS MADE Wjune= 52.5, THAT GIVES FOR 54 MONTH (2012, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec.= 59.6 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI.2012 - IX 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 41 6.. 52 11.. 11m 16.. 71 21.. 95M 26.. 41 2.. 53 7.. 33 12.. 20 17.. 76 22.. 94 27.. 42 3.. 44 8.. 18 13.. 35 18.. 77 23.. 81 28.. 51 4.. 35 9.. 24 14.. 44 19.. 84 24.. 74 29.. 47 5.. 54 10.. 18 15.. 65 20.. 88 25.. 53 30.. 55 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, JUNE Fjune = 110.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, JUNE Ap june. = 12.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 30.06.2013, Forecast on 01 - 07.06.2013, Carrington Rotations 2138 (11,23.06.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD (9 DAYS) WAS MADE W=054+28/-14. ON THE VISIBLE SO- LAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 8 - 6 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY IN THIS PERIOD WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT 22 JUNE, AND THE LOW LEVEL -IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 56 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE TYPE OF THE "PARTIAL GALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 23.06 2048 2053 >2059 S15E66L129 M2.9/1N 2.5E-3 11778 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 24.06 >0432 <0733 S28W50L225 23 24.06 0605 0727 N32E35L140 9 25.06 >0432 <0733 N25E24L117 25 26.06 0325 0344 N21E40L109 11 29.06 >0921 >2342 S30E57L172 5 29.06 >0921 >2342 S17W22L131 16 29.06 >0921 >2342 N21E07L102 9 29.06 >1730 <0453 S45E15L094 10 29.06 >1730 <0453 S04W36L145 15 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N20L142 N20L136 S08L152 N18L177 28.06 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N68L048 N45L033 N30L048 N35L088 04.07 3 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 29.06/0530 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 12.07. JUNE 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 JUNE Wus 137 118 082 091 077 071 083 067 085 F10.7 130 128 121 109 107 100 101 100 103 èbcg ÷5.0 ÷4.8 B4.7 B3.8 ÷3.4 B2.6 B2.0 B1.9 B3.4 GOES Sp 1200 800 740 400 320 340 230 230 280 m.v.h. N 1 1 1 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - +/- + áóå Å>2 2.6å+7 4.5E+7 1.8E+8 5.9å+8 8.2å+8 6.2E-8 1.8E-7 1.1E-7 3.1E-7 GOES Ie>2 803 1607 10653 17149 17677 17632 1393 695 934 GOES Ap 14 18 16 9 3 8 22 51 10 Îô áÒ Dst -26 -38 -49 -48 -19 -17 -92 -98 -48 KIOTO Amsc 15 18 19 8 6 11 31 37 - IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTRED to - 21/1730 UT; tm - 23/2030 UT - 11 p.f.u.; te - 25/24 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 23/0230 UT AND OBSERVED 23 - 29.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD WAS AC- TIVE. AND 28-29.06, AFTER COMING TO EARTH INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SC -27/1440 UT) WAS RECORDED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=40, dur.= 36 h.) ON THE IZMIRAN DATA AND MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=54, dur.=33 h.) ACCORDING THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTED FROM THE EART'S PASSAGE OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE GREAT EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES, ON WHICH HAVE BEEN SUPERIMPOSED THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AT 25.06. OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE FROM ACTIVE (3-4 JULY) TO QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru