-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2015 HAS MADE Wjan.= 67.0, THAT GIVES FOR 66 MONTHS (2014, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jule = 78.6 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014 THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9 THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 75 6.. 64 11.. 88 16.. 38 21.. 32 26.. 80 31..101 2.. 89 7.. 74 12.. 92 17.. 29m 22.. 37 27.. 91 3.. 74 8.. 74 13.. 72 18.. 47 23.. 42 28.. 98 4.. 74 9.. 81 14.. 58 19.. 48 24.. 41 29..103M 5.. 66 10.. 81 15.. 43 20.. 38 25.. 44 30..102 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2015, JANUARY Fjan.= 141.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, JANUARY Ap jan.= 8.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.01 - 01.02.2015, Forecast on 02 - 09.02.2015, Carrington Rotation 2160 (1,28.02.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN VARIES FROM AVERAGE TO HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 079+36/-13. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN IS CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6 - 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WERE THE MIDDLE SIZE (Sp>300 mvh). NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=040+ 20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL AT 26, 28-30.01, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCURRENCE IN THIS PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 20 CME TWO OF WICH WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 26.01 1646 1653 1658 S09E32L046 M1.1/ 4.6E-03 12268 28.01 0421 0441 0609 S09E09L046 M1.4/2N 2.1E-02 12268 28.01 2132 2137 >2141 N08E73L336 M1.0/SF 2.4E-03 12277 29.01 1132 1142 ~1222 S12W06L046 M2.1/1B 1.7E-02 12268 30.01 0032 0044 >0102 S13W16LO46 M2.0/ 2.3E-02 12268 30.01 0529 0536 >0635 S13W16L046 M1.7/ 4.8E-02 12268 30.01 1210 1216 >1221 N07E52L336 M2.4/ 8.7E-03 12277 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 27.01 >2349 <1441 S16W19L075 11 29.01 >1026 <2318 N36W65L095 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH - S30L015 S60L327 Ps S32L042 01.02 7 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 20.01/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 3.02. JANUARY 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 FEBRUARY Wus 110 119 140 181 193 153 132 F10.7 147 158 159 165 159 154 142 èbcg B7.0 B9.6 B9.5 ÷9.4 B8.6 B6.3 B7.0 GOES Sp 580 840 850 1160 1450 1320 1030 mvh N 4 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.1E+5 1.9å+6 1.8å+6 4.3å+6 1.0å+6 9.71E+5 6.7E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 15 13 7 10 10 9 20 nT Dst -29 nT KIOTO Amsc 14 16 9 7 12 12 21 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT ~1 pfu AT MAXIMUM (30/23 h) NOTED 29-31.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE BEFORE THE SECOND HALF OF 01.02, WHEN ACROSS THE EARTH HAVE BEEN REGISTRED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1), WHICH CONTINUES AT THE TIME OF ISSUE OF THE HIGHLAIT. NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru