Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 22.02.2015, Forecast on 23.02 - 02.03.2015, Carrington Rotation 2160,2161 (1,28.02; 27,93.03.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL ALL PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 036+21/-12. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS. ON FEBRUARY 18 ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN AT ONCE THE- RE WERE FIVE NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS THAT IS VERY RARE EVENT. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTI- VITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX- PECTED W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 15 - 17 é 19.02, THE VERY LOW - ON OTHER DAYS. FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCURRENCE AT 18, 19 AND 20.02. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >30 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE (THE WESTERN BACK SIDE EVENT) AND ONE - "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 18.02 2219 2349 S23W42L164 10 19.02 >0004 <1418 S27W13L122 7 19.02 >2356 <1428 S22E10L099 6 20.02 >1543 <0656 S23W09L105 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + N45L147 N42L072 N15L157 N17L161 18.02 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... óH + S05L078 S12L073 S15L083 S12L095 24.02 1 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 15.02/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 5.03. FEBRUARY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 FEBRUARY Wus 045 044 040 095 086 053 054 049 F10.7 120 118 119 121 119 120 116 118 èbcg B3.6 B3.6 B3.8 B4.0 ÷3.8 B4.2 B3.3 ÷3.0 GOES Sp 240 220 180 250 240 100 110 070 mvh N 1 5 IMF +/- - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 4.1E+6 2.4å+6 3.4å+5 1.2å+7 1.4å+7 2.5E+7 4.3E+7 2.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 316 107 401 774 399 pfu GOES Ap 6 5 23 18 8 6 7 6 nT Dst -1 -56 -60 -32 -26 -20 -14 nT KIOTO Amsc 8 7 21 20 11 8 6 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT OCCURRENCE 21.02 FROM BACK SIDE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION?: Pr>10 MeV - to ~ 21/13 h.; tmax ~ 20 h. - ~ 1 pfu; te - 22/06h. THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=37, dur. = 12 h.) ON FEBRUARY 17-18 IT WAS NOTED ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN AND THE CENTRE IN BOULDER. THIS MAGNETIC DIS- TURBANCE - RESULT OF JOINT ACTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 14.02 AND THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru