Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.08.2015, Forecast on 10 - 17.08.2015, Carrington Rotation 2166, 2167 (14,84.07; 07,30.09.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W=79+13/-19 (W old= 50+7/-13). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 5-6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE, WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED: AR12396 (S16 L037, Sp max= 800 msh) - appeared from East limb 1.08 or it was formed on a visible disk 2.08. Quickly developed, and by 5.08 it became big. Such fast development led to the sharp growth of flare activity, but the glo- bal magnetic configuration (in border of AR) remained especially bipolar. Therefore all energy of the emerging magnetic fluxes was realized in fla- res of class C and S (36 for three days). So far it isn't necessary to wa- it for flares of average and big classes before emergence of the new emer- ging magnetic flux. THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 050+ 20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AT FIRST THREE DAYS AND THE LOW IN OTHER. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >35 CMEs ONE WAS "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 04.08 >0937 <2327 N31E03L090 6 04.08 >1654 <0533 N17W31L114 12 05.08 2158 2308 S30E08L062 7 07.08 2001 2125 S26E90L~313 43 07.08 2030 2052 S19E67L336 19 07.08 2326 0039 S34E70L323 32 09.08 >0940 <2342 S25W34L051 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N10L093 N00L088 S02L090 N05L101 7.08 8 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + S18L094 S25L089 S29L068 S20L096 2.08 8 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N10L342 ù10L335 S11L337 N01L349 16.08 7 - SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 06.08/0630 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 26.08. AUGUST 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 AUGUST Wus 062 068 087 080 095 092 087 F10.7 106 107 112 122 122 121 115 èbcg B3.1 B2.5 B2.7 B3.4 B4.6 B4.3 B5.3 GOES Sp 181 270 450 700 850 920 900 msh N 2 1 1 IMF - - - -/+ + + + áóå Å>2 4.5å+7 6.2å+7 4.5å+7 2.0å+7 3.9E+7 1.9E+7 5.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 1156 1662 1205 638 1851 846 2253 pfu GOES Ap 6 6 6 12 21 12 10 nT BOULDER Dst -12 -21 -30 -20 nT KIOTO Amsc 7 10 10 12 18 17 12 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODE- RATE LEVELS ON 06 AND 08.08 AND WAS AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMERY PERIOD WITH A PEAK FLUX VALUE OF 2,250 pfu OBSERVED AT 09/ 1825 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 10 - 16.08. GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REACHED OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS (G1, Ams= 48, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING OF CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams = 29, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA ON 07.08 WITH ACTIVE LEVELS OBSERVED ON 6 AND 7.08 IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAMS (CH HSSs). GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUITE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMARY PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED UN- SETTLED AND QUITE. HOWEVER GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CH OF POSITIVE POLARITY IS POSSIBLE ON AUGUST 15 - 16. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNE- TIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru