------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2015 HAS MADE Wdec. = 37.1, 57.7 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 77 MONTHS (2015, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÉÀÎØ = 43.2; 72.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ; W*ÍÁÊ = 45.6; 76.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 32 6.. 54 11.. 81 16.. 63 21.. 18m 26.. 64 31.. 22 2.. 49 7.. 60 12.. 83 17.. 56 22.. 73 27.. 67 3.. 36 8.. 57 13.. 81 18.. 53 23.. 68 28.. 70 4.. 33 9.. 77 14.. 86í 19.. 50 24.. 68 29.. 58 5.. 49 10.. 82 15.. 65 20.. 21 25.. 77 30.. 35 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2015, DECEMBER Fdec. = 112.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, DECEMBER Ap dec. = 13.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.12.2015 - 03.01.2016 Ç., Forecast on 04 - 11.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2172 (25,50.112.2015) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 28+10/-17 (Wn= 43+18/-26). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 - 4 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE - BIG AR12473,HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IN THIS AR 28.12 and 1.01 HAS OCCUREN- CE 2 PROTON FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS. THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX- PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY 28.12 AND 01.01 WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL, 2 AND 3.01 - AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND IN OTHER DAYS - ON THE LOW LEVEL. THREE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD. AC- CORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >20 CMEs, ONE OF THEM WAS "HALO" TYPE AND ONE-"PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 28.12 1120 1245 >1409 S23W11L331 M1.8/ 1.1E-01 12473 IV/1 CME/1148 01.01 2310 0011 >0101 s25w82l331 M2.3/ 1.1E-01 12473 II/2 IV/1 CME DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 01.01 >1028 >0123 N45W76L004 26 01.01 >1028 >0123 S34W63L331 6 03.01 0930 1030 S38W90L>318 ? CME ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories -------------------------------------------------------------------- ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà ïëð R G ïâóåò÷áôïòéé CH + N85L309 N50L321 N30L004 N30L004 31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N85L295 N35L250 N15L203 N25L312 31.12 6 G0 SDO, SOHO... óî + N05L223 S18L206 S23L210 S10L239 06.01 3 G1 SDO, SOHO... The first two - parts of the huge CH which is gradually coming nearer to a N-pole. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory. EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 2.01/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. WITH THE 31.12/19 UT SIGN SECTOR HAS BEEN "-". THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11 - 12.01. DECEMBER 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 JANUARY Wus 064 054 034 018 040 052 050 F10.7 112 105 102 096 098 100 102 èbcg ÷5.8 ÷3.9 B3.0 B2.8 ÷3.4 B5.8 B3.1 GOES Sp 530 480 250 130 140 140 170 msh N 2 1 IMF - - - +/- - -/+ + áóå Å>2 7.4å+7 1.0å+8 5.8å+7 1.7å+7 4.3E+7 1.5E+8 2.3å+8 GOES Ie>2 1696 2442 1656 853 1465 4113 6782 pfu GOES Ap 4 6 3 42 25 9 7 nT BOULDER Dst -22 -17 -14 -109 -117 -39 -26 nT KIOTO Amsc 8 11 4 35 26 9 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT (G0) NOTED AFTER M1.8 28.12 FLARE: Pr (>10 MeV) to-28.12/~13 UT; max: 3 pfu -29/0150 UT; te -30/12 UT. THE SECOND SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT (G1) noted after M2.3 02.01 FLARE: Pr (>10 MeV) to-2.01/~00 UT; max: 21 pfu - 2/0405 UT; te - 3/15 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGINNING AT 1.01/2035 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 21 - 30.12. NEXT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGINNING AT 21.12/0515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 1 - 3.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 4 - 11.01. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE FROM FLARE 28.12 (SI- 31/0051 UT) IN EARTH's SPACE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPED THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM - Dst = 117 nT: (G2, Ams = 46, dur.= 33 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA AND (G2, Ams=50, dur.= 21 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. IN THE REMAINING DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED 6 - 7.01, WHEN THE EARTH BE PASS THE HIGH SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE POSITIVE POLARITY. THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~ 40%. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EX- PECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru